In the face of yet another fractious election cycle, the NFL went about its usual business of running roughshod over our collective attention span, and while the league’s TV deliveries were down a hair compared to last season, the net losses were practically immaterial.
Shouty Beltway types did their level best to horn in on our national obsession, but the NFL shrugged off the political encroachments, averaging 17.5 million viewers per week across its 118 TV windows. That marks a 2% dip versus the year-ago period, which works out to an average loss of around 400,000 viewers. By comparison, the Trump/Clinton-haunted 2016 season took an 8% hit, as the NFL’s TV partners had to contend with the loss of some 1.6 million impressions per week.
Leading the pack for the second consecutive year was CBS’ Sunday afternoon national window, which averaged 24.2 million viewers, edging Fox’s “America’s Game of the Week” slate by a margin of 291,000 impressions per week. While CBS’ ongoing dispute with Nielsen effectively prevents the network from celebrating its big win, the results underscore how a hybrid AFC/NFC roster has been instrumental in leveling the playing field. (Prior to the 2023-24 campaign, Fox had strung together a 13-season winning streak.)
Helmed by Jim Nantz and Tony Romo, the CBS Sunday showcase featured four all-AFC games, including the Nov. 17 Chiefs-Bills blockbuster that averaged 31.1 million viewers. Four other late windows were devoted to NFC-on-NFC matchups, while the remaining broadcasts were crossovers.
When the Thanksgiving Day games are tossed into the mix, CBS’ national NFL average improved to 25.4 million viewers, while its lead over Fox grew to some 966,000 impressions per week. For the last 15 years, the late window shared by the two networks has earned bragging rights as the most-watched program on TV.
The race between CBS and Fox in part turned on a rough two-week patch for the latter, which was marred by consecutive appearances by the low-scoring, intrigue-shunning Pittsburgh Steelers. On Dec. 15, fans bailed out of the listless Pittsburgh-Philly game once it became clear that Russell Wilson & Co. wouldn’t manage to score in the second half; per Nielsen, that window averaged 16.4 million viewers. The following Saturday saw the Steelers get curb-stomped by their AFC North rivals in Baltimore, and the 15.4 million viewers who stuck around for the carnage was a good 10 million shy of Fox’s usual deliveries.
All told, the audience for the late national window receded by 3%. Bear in mind that the average draw for a primetime entertainment series on the Big Four networks is currently 3.56 million viewers per episode, which translates to a 600% advantage for the big NFL window, or a lead of some 21.4 million impressions.
Speaking of prime, NBC notched a slight year-over-year lift with its Sunday Night Football juggernaut, which inclusive of streaming impressions was up 1% with an average draw of 21.6 million TV and digital viewers. An uptick in Peacock deliveries was responsible for the ratings hike, as NBC’s sibling streamer helped boost SNF’s digital turnout to some 2.2 million viewers per week, up from 1.6 million. Back out those eyeballs and the Tirico/Collinsworth linear-TV average worked out to 19.4 million viewers per week, down 2% versus last year’s 19.8 million. Barring a wholly unforeseen breakout performance by one of the networks’ midseason shows—the odds of, say, Perfect Wife: The Disappearance of Sherri Papini scaring up 20 million pairs of peepers every week are up there with the likelihood of hearing C.J. Stroud yell, “I’m going to Disney World!” on the night of Feb. 9—NBC’s football juggernaut will win the primetime ratings race for the 14th straight season.
Also drawing a bigger crowd this season was Amazon Prime Video’s Thursday Night Football package, which improved its deliveries 11% with an average weekly draw of 13.2 million viewers. Amazon’s third season of TNF attracted an additional 1.34 million fans every week, and its younger-skewing, high-earning audience remains the envy of the linear-TV set. Per Nielsen, the Thursday night window boasted a median age of 49.0 years, nearly seven years south of the NFL’s TV average (55.7 years) and considerably younger than the creaky broadcast primetime audience (63.3). Advertisers that forked over the $565,000 in-game unit rate were rewarded with a wealthier bunch of would-be consumers, as TNF viewers boasted a median household income of $101,800 throughout the regular season, which is 16% higher than what the fans who watch the NFL via the linear-TV networks were raking in ($87,800) over the same period.
Among the NFL’s media partners, only Disney had to contend with a double-digit drop, as Monday Night Football’s average draw of 14.9 million viewers was down 14% versus last season’s 17.3 million. At least some of the MNF erosion is a function of fewer ABC simulcasts and standalone games; last year saw Disney schedule 19 outings on its broadcast flagship versus 15 this time around.
Of course, Disney should be able to use its smaller cache of ratings points to its advantage in the 2025-26 upfront bazaar, thanks to the classical interplay between supply and demand. With an average unit cost of $655,000 per 30-second spot, ABC/ESPN’s NFL package was the second-priciest buy on the primetime dial; in the likely event that demand for the in-game inventory is flat or up, the ratings crunch should propel Disney’s asking price to at least $700,000 a pop.
The ABC lift was particularly evident toward the end of the fall campaign, as the Dec. 30 Lions-49ers duel averaged a season-high 22.1 million viewers across ABC and ESPN, while the Jan. 4 Bengals-Steelers capper served up just shy of 22 million. The ABC wrinkle goes a long way toward making up for the ongoing shrinkage of the legacy pay-TV bundle, which in the last four quarters lost another 5 million subscribers. Penetration of the cable/satellite/telco-TV bundle is now down to just 38% of all U.S. TV households, and even with a boost from the virtual MVPDs, pay-TV’s overall reach is now at 54%.
While assigning causality to human behavior is about as useful an enterprise as trying to teach a dog how to cook waffles, a couple factors may have been instrumental in circumventing another election-year collapse. For one thing, scoring was up
With an average tally of 45.8 points per game, offensive production improved by 5%. Detroit closed out the regular season with an average haul of 33.2 points per game, up from the year-ago 27.1, while Josh Allen’s Bills put up 30.9 (up from 26.5). Lamar Jackson’s Ravens trailed Buffalo by just four-tenths of a point, as Baltimore improved its weekly output by 2.1 points.
Meanwhile, that Chiefs scoring slump wasn’t a figment of your imagination; Patrick Mahomes helped Kansas City average 22.6 points per week, good for a decidedly middling 15th place on this season’s list. Just two years ago, the Chiefs were the NFL’s No. 1 illuminator of scoreboards, with an average yield of 29.2 points per game.
As it happens, all but two of the 14 playoff teams put up bigger numbers than they did a year ago. And while September’s Steelers seemed to be as allergic to the end zone as they’ve been throughout the post-Ben Roethlisberger era, Wilson’s Moonball was instrumental in upping the team’s production from a lowly 17.9 PPG to an average (22.4) that came in just shy of the Chiefs’ number.
The NFL’s offensive rebound did not coincide with an eruption of blowouts, as the average margin of victory this season (11.2 PPG) was identical to last year’s spread. While those margins were still up noticeably compared to the white-knuckle 2022 season (9.7 PPG), they’re also more competitive than what was on offer in 2021, when 12.2 points marked the gap between winners and losers. Of the playoff teams, Detroit boasts the most eye-goggling advantage over its peers, with an average margin of victory of 13.1 PPG—a number that seems suspiciously low, given some of the scores they put up: 52-6, 52-14, 47-9. Philly (9.4), Buffalo (9.2) and Baltimore (9.2) also have a tendency to pile it on.
All of which should go a long way toward ensuring yet another big turnout for the playoffs, which kick off Saturday on CBS and Amazon. The number to beat is 30.2 million viewers, an average that was inflated by the massive turnout for last year’s Packers-Cowboys throwdown. Green Bay’s 48-32 win averaged 40.2 million viewers on Fox, making it the 10th-biggest draw of 2024.
If none of this season’s Wild Card games are likely to top that figure, Fox’s Sunday Packers-Eagles broadcast is expected to draw well over 30 million viewers, barring the sort of unlikely blowout that encourages fans to get off the couch and find something else to do with their afternoon. But even a one-sided matchup has staying power this time of year, as is evident by the TV turnout for the final broadcast of the regular season. The Lions’ 31-9 mauling of the Vikings averaged 28.5 million viewers Sunday night; per Nielsen, 35% of all TVs that were in use at the time were tuned to NBC.
(This article has been corrected to indicate the number of playoff teams that scored more points than the year before.)
